Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $496,253$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{539,481.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 144.4)}}\) (asimptote \(539,481.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,293$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,715.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.5)}}\) (asimptote \(36,715.3\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $64,010$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $400,124$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{496,454.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 180.1)}}\) (asimptote \(496,454.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,790$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,826.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 150.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,826.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,004$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $289,875$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,941$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $62,209$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,129$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,555.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(94,555.6\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,009$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,099.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,099.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,389$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,924$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,395.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(45,395.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,082$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,185.6}{1 + 10^{-0.753 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,185.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,615$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $75,287$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,039.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(80,039.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $273$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 132.9)}}\) (asimptote \(260.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,206$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $110,568$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,599.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 142.6)}}\) (asimptote \(111,599.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $655$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{590.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 80.3)}}\) (asimptote \(590.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,191$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $338,944$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333,771.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.4)}}\) (asimptote \(333,771.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,018$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,048.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 118.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,048.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,189$ on 2020-10-10