Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Oman
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Kazakhstan
  • Korea, South
  • Uzbekistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $496,253$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{539,481.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 144.4)}}\) (asimptote \(539,481.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,293$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,715.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.5)}}\) (asimptote \(36,715.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64,010$ on 2020-10-10

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $400,124$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{496,454.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 180.1)}}\) (asimptote \(496,454.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,790$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,826.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 150.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,826.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,004$ on 2020-10-10

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $289,875$ on 2020-10-10

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,941$ on 2020-10-10

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,209$ on 2020-10-10

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,129$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,555.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(94,555.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,009$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,099.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,099.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,389$ on 2020-10-10

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,924$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,395.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(45,395.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,082$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,185.6}{1 + 10^{-0.753 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,185.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,615$ on 2020-10-10

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $75,287$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,039.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(80,039.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 132.9)}}\) (asimptote \(260.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,206$ on 2020-10-10

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,568$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,599.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 142.6)}}\) (asimptote \(111,599.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $655$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{590.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 80.3)}}\) (asimptote \(590.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,191$ on 2020-10-10

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $338,944$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333,771.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.4)}}\) (asimptote \(333,771.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,018$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,048.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 118.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,048.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,189$ on 2020-10-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Saudi Arabia recovered 85%
Korea, South recovered 80%
Uzbekistan recovered 73%
United Arab Emirates recovered 49%
Tajikistan recovered 42%
Bahrain recovered 40%
Bangladesh recovered 31%
India recovered 15%
Israel recovered 14%
Iraq recovered 8%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,866$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,136.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,136.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $141$ on 2020-10-10

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,757$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,649.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,649.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,743.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,743.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,031$ on 2020-10-10

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,606$ on 2020-10-10

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 47.3)}}\) (asimptote \(335.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,481$ on 2020-10-10

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,776$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,101.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 148.7)}}\) (asimptote \(66,101.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $502$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{546.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(546.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,570$ on 2020-10-10